Messages in AirborneWindEnergy group.                          AWES2534to2583 Page 31 of 79.

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2534 From: Doug Date: 11/13/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2535 From: Bob Stuart Date: 11/13/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2536 From: Ugo Bardi Date: 11/13/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2537 From: dave santos Date: 11/13/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2538 From: Dave Lang Date: 11/13/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2539 From: Ugo Bardi Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2540 From: Pierre BENHAIEM Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2541 From: Pierre Benhaiem Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: What regulator for Manual Kite?

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2542 From: Theo Schmidt Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: Please stop these quoting-festivals!

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2543 From: dave santos Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: Re: What regulator for Manual Kite?

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2544 From: Pierre BENHAIEM Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: Re: What regulator for Manual Kite?

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2545 From: Muzhichkov Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: Space Solar Power System vs AWECS

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2546 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: Re: Space Solar Power System vs AWECS

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2547 From: dave santos Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: Violent high-speed high-mass tethered flight dynamics

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2548 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: Ben's Key and Kite

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2549 From: Doug Date: 11/14/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2550 From: Doug Date: 11/15/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2551 From: Dave Lang Date: 11/15/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2552 From: dave santos Date: 11/15/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2553 From: Theo Schmidt Date: 11/16/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2554 From: Ugo Bardi Date: 11/16/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2555 From: Doug Date: 11/16/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2556 From: Doug Date: 11/16/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2557 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/16/2010
Subject: An update note on wiki: Year 2002.

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2558 From: dave santos Date: 11/16/2010
Subject: Spanning Atmospheric Waves with Tethered-Foils

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2559 From: dave santos Date: 11/17/2010
Subject: Proper AWE Debate

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2560 From: Pierre Benhaiem Date: 11/17/2010
Subject: Control and reliability

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2561 From: Uwe Fechner Date: 11/17/2010
Subject: Re: Control and reliability

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2562 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/17/2010
Subject: Windlift flight testing recent

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2563 From: dave santos Date: 11/17/2010
Subject: Re: Control and reliability

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2564 From: spacecannon@san.rr.com Date: 11/17/2010
Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2565 From: Ugo Bardi Date: 11/17/2010
Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2566 From: Pierre BENHAIEM Date: 11/18/2010
Subject: Re: Control and reliability

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2567 From: Pierre BENHAIEM Date: 11/18/2010
Subject: Re: Control and reliability

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2568 From: Doug Date: 11/18/2010
Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2569 From: Doug Date: 11/18/2010
Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2570 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/18/2010
Subject: Video collection now up to 144

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2571 From: dave santos Date: 11/18/2010
Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2572 From: Doug Date: 11/18/2010
Subject: Contests & Grants:Thanks for the support

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2573 From: dave santos Date: 11/18/2010
Subject: Re: Control and reliability

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2574 From: AirborneWindEnergy-owner@yahoogroups.com Date: 11/18/2010
Subject: Re: Welcome Jeremy Calvert with Kitebot.org

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2575 From: Theo Schmidt Date: 11/19/2010
Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2576 From: Theo Schmidt Date: 11/19/2010
Subject: Corrections [was: Re: [AWECS] Re: Proper AWE Debate]

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2577 From: Dan Parker Date: 11/19/2010
Subject: Re: Corrections [was: Re: [AWECS] Re: Proper AWE Debate]

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2578 From: Doug Date: 11/19/2010
Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2579 From: AirborneWindEnergy-owner@yahoogroups.com Date: 11/19/2010
Subject: Strong online view of messages

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2580 From: Doug Date: 11/19/2010
Subject: Corrections [was: Re: [AWECS] Re: Proper AWE Debate]

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2581 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/19/2010
Subject: HighWindHawaii

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2582 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/19/2010
Subject: Re: HighWindHawaii

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2583 From: Theo Schmidt Date: 11/19/2010
Subject: Re: Corrections




Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2534 From: Doug Date: 11/13/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
Here's the problem:
We were told in the 1990's that by now the oceans would be much higher. They have not changed. It's almost 2011 - "the future".
This IS the time in which higer sea level were predicted - it WAS the "future", now it is NOW.
Ocean levels are really the big "scare factor" here, and they have not changed at all in 20-30 years of "global warming".
Does ANYBODY pay attention to FACTS?
Science = formulate theory, make predictions from that theory, check results. In this case, the predicted rise in sea level has not occurred, therefore the "theory" is becoming VERY questionable.
Doug Selsam
http://www.flyingwindturbine.com

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2535 From: Bob Stuart Date: 11/13/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
Some islands in the western Indian Ocean have already been abandoned.  10,000 people were displaced, but they were so poor that it was satellite photos that brought the news to the west.  Overall, world-wide instruments, averaging out creeping plate activity, etc, do show a rise.
Many years ago, I consoled myself with the thought that by burning oil, I might be helping to stave off a 5th in a series of ice ages.  That was a rather Eurocentric view, transplanted appropriately to Canada.  During the Ice ages, there was almost no life here, but there was more land in the tropics, their oceans were cold enough to hold oxygen for many fish, and the total tonnage of biomass was very considerably greater.  

Bob Stuart
Just chiming in.

On 13-Nov-10, at 9:33 AM, Doug wrote:

Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2536 From: Ugo Bardi Date: 11/13/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
You are disappointing me even more. Please, understand your limits and the fact that you have no qualifications in climate science. 

I repeat that you are damaging AWE with this superficial attitude and I ask you to avoid continuing this debate. I appreciate your understanding.

UB





Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2537 From: dave santos Date: 11/13/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
Ugo,
 
Doug & Lynn's thinking may just be symptoms of the the US's seeming intellectual decline. Scientific debate is almost a lost art as corporate propaganda increasingly drives popular opinion. Do not expect Lynn & his "Venus Hypothesis" to account for the fact that we are losing fossil ice layers on tropical mountaintops, all over the world, that stably survived multiple Ice Age cycles. Do not expect Doug to actually check & see that sea levels are in fact rising faster & faster. The rate of rise has doubled in recent decades & the long term curve is starting to clearly delineate the predicted "hockey stick". Doug thinks a single year of few hurricanes is a reasonable basis for arguement, but its not, as he ignores years like 2005-
 


From: Ugo Bardi <ugo.bardi@unifi.it
 
You are disappointing me even more. Please, understand your limits and the fact that you have no qualifications in climate science. 

I repeat that you are damaging AWE with this superficial attitude and I ask you to avoid continuing this debate. I appreciate your understanding.

UB





On 11/13/2010 04:33 PM, Doug wrote:
-- 
****************************************
Prof. Ugo Bardi
Dipartimento di Chimica - Università di Firenze and
ASPO - Association for the Study of Peak Oil
Polo Scientifico di Sesto Fiorentino - 50010 Sesto F. (Fi) - Italy
Tel +39 0554573118 - ugo.bardi@unifi.it ******************************************



Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2538 From: Dave Lang Date: 11/13/2010
Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
Attachments :
    Hi Folks,
    This discussion is just too fun to not participate a bit.

    So, I think we all agree that the measured average earth temps seem to be increasing notably...but of course, this can be attributed to any number of causes, including "natural ones", so one can't immediately blame humans.

    It is hard to quote a single year's weather as proving any thing about trends. Systems undergoing transients in equilibrium conditions, or going unstable, are very good at exhibiting large excursions in parameters.

    However, there is one piece of data, that demands some contemplation rather than flippant dismissal, namely the historical CO2 content in the atmosphere. Below is a record that has been put together from studying trapped gasses in old glaciers....the CO2 balance is a delicate one, reflecting millenniums of flora/fauna/geological evolution resulting in "stable equilibrium" of our atmospheric constituents (manifesting of course, cyclic phenomenon resulting in periodic ice ages, etc)...we know CO2 is a "greenhouse gas", so its content is critical to the unfolding of weather and atmosphere.

    From long ago (100's of thousands of years ago), the average CO2 has been setting at about 250 ppm......NOW, in the LAST 200 years that average has risen to about 375 ppm, WITH the last 50 ppm gain occurring over the last 50 yrs (which in "essentially instantaneously" on any kind of geological time frame)....

    I am not saying man is causing climate warming, BUT, I am saying if you flippantly disregard this evidence (be it in the name of conspiracy, greenies tree-hugges, petroleum business interest, etc - you-name the special interest here), you would not be practicing (what in this forum, we all like to boast that we do) "hard science".

    DaveL





    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2539 From: Ugo Bardi Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
    Well, Dave, we have our problems in Europe, too. And in Italy, ugh......  In addition to bad politicians, recent data show that the Mediterranean area is going to be one of the most affected by GW generated droughts. Desertification is a worse perspective than hurricanes and we are seeing it already taking place here. So, the future will be tough - I don't know. One hope is that we'll have energy from kites; otherwise things look really bleak.

    Ugo



    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2540 From: Pierre BENHAIEM Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
    For most presented industries at the World Energy Congress in Montreal Congrès Mondial de l'Énergie 2010 
    CO² was a problem to solve,with the development of renewables (better future for solar energy),but above all,for oil or coal,by capture of CO².However the conclusion was 1) increase production of energy to satisfy the development of the world;2) climate preoccupations.(Copenhagen effect).Note in the Congress fossil source like shale gas was seen as a cleaner energy than oil.And for the next 20 years fossil sources will stay the main source.Some experts like Fatih Birol (present at Montreal) in IEA insists regulary insists on the depletion of fossil sources,that since his 2008 report.Sometimes the limit of HAWE is viewed as the limit of the height of existant aeolian towers.

    So within the next 20 years,HAWE will must be known and cultivated.
      

    PierreB

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2541 From: Pierre Benhaiem Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: What regulator for Manual Kite?
    Like most kite systems (see the shown cyclic variation of power on Makani from 4 to 8 KW on a loop) there is a cyclic variation of power on Manual Flygen http://www.energykitesystems.net/OrthoKiteBunch/OptimizationOfAManualFlygen.pdf we can hear on Manual Flygen:1' playing = 1' laptop or 30' talking .
     
    And to load correctly a battery without underload or overload on battery without big losses a regulator MPPT is needed.Lifepo4 battery seems better (possible quick load). 
     
    A product like MPPT Solar Charge Controller for 12.8V LiFePO4 battery pack could be a solution.Can it work as regulator for wind turbine (propeller and brushless or brushed motor from industry of model airplane for Manual Flygen).
     
    Thanks for your suggestions.
     
    PierreB 
     
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2542 From: Theo Schmidt Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: Please stop these quoting-festivals!
    Dear members of this list,

    PLEASE STOP QUOTING entire threads!!. Some of these last threads are
    getting over 50 kB *per mail*. Apart form the resources and energy
    implications I suggested earlier, this is a breach of recognized
    netiquette rules and plays havoc with any sensible archiving and
    searching facilities. If you must bottom-quote, at least snip off
    everything except the very last message. If you want to spread your
    ideas, don't dilute them with ballast! This will increase the chance of
    propagation.

    Thank you.
    Theo Schmidt


    This is what the recent messages look like, pages and pages:
    ...
    enough.
    ...
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2543 From: dave santos Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: Re: What regulator for Manual Kite?
    Pierre,
     
    Careful, a typical solar charge controller designed for the tame sunlight charge profile risks being burned-out by the wild surges of a sweeping flygen. Pick a wind application charge controller.
     
    For experiments at lowest cost, lead-acid gell-cells or nickel-cadmium batteries are cheap & well able to directly absorb powerful surges. A cheap simple diode & capacitor rectifier & ripple filter suffice for the electronics. There is little chance that you will overcharge a big battery pack manually, just don't let anything get too hot. A suitably rated potentiometer is a good load simulator for testing, no battery required.
     
    Doug may have a good recommendation, especially for a commercial package,
     
    daveS


    From: Pierre Benhaiem <pierre.benhaiem@orange.fr
     
    Like most kite systems (see the shown cyclic variation of power on Makani from 4 to 8 KW on a loop) there is a cyclic variation of power on Manual Flygen http://www.energykitesystems.net/OrthoKiteBunch/OptimizationOfAManualFlygen.pdf we can hear on Manual Flygen:1' playing = 1' laptop or 30' talking .
     
    And to load correctly a battery without underload or overload on battery without big losses a regulator MPPT is needed.Lifepo4 battery seems better (possible quick load). 
     
    A product like MPPT Solar Charge Controller for 12.8V LiFePO4 battery pack could be a solution.Can it work as regulator for wind turbine (propeller and brushless or brushed motor from industry of model airplane for Manual Flygen).
     
    Thanks for your suggestions.
     
    PierreB 
     



    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2544 From: Pierre BENHAIEM Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: Re: What regulator for Manual Kite?
    Hi all,

    Thanks DaveS,

    For a good charge the value of output must be stabilized at the value of battery or element,so technology of MPPT is needed.Nor wind charges are too heavy and powerful (generally 60 A/12/24 V and more).For Manual Flygen application 10 A under 4 to 12 V is enough,the weight can not exceed 0,25 kg.

    I do not see such wind charge on the market.If you see it,thank to inform me.

    Trials must include the time of life of battery or element.

    PierreB 






    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2545 From: Muzhichkov Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: Space Solar Power System vs AWECS
    Hi everybody,
    I don't finde on forum any mention about energy transmition in form of laser or microwave. But many serious scients develop this type of transmition espesially for SSPS project:
    http://www.usef.or.jp/english/f3_project/ssps/f3_ssps.html
    What is oppinien of AWE-members, can this project win in struggle with AWE for global investitions? What are the advanges and disadvantages in compare with our models?

    Alex Mu
    awenergy.ru
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2546 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: Re: Space Solar Power System vs AWECS
    Alex,
        In AWE sites, perhaps not starkly headlined, there are mentions of flygen AWECS that convert the upperwind into laser or microwave and then beaming such energy form to either other aircraft or to ground receivers, instead of using conductive tether. Also, free-flight AWECS may use such conversion with no tether to the ground, but just upperair aircraft either unitized or of the free-flight dynamic bi-terminal two-kite device.     Wayne German, Dave Santos, myself, and others have so recalled the method.  We seek peaceful uses for such methods in AWE.   Convert upperwind's kinectic energy to power beams, light, laser, microwave, sound, music, electricity, heat, torsion, oscillating tension, ... each play. Winners for particular precise applications form an open question. Finding solutions is a grand adventure.
     
    Lift,
    JoeF
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2547 From: dave santos Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: Violent high-speed high-mass tethered flight dynamics
     
    KiteLab has gleaned lots of empirical evidence that the flight dynamics of large high-speed high-mass tethered-foils are as wild as predicted by analysis & small scale experiments. Numerous cases in real-world aerotowing confirm the "tether-snub" hazard. Below is a particularly clear instance with 1000ft of tether. Luckily the pilot lived. Note that snubbing a kiteplane against another flying object or fixed anchor is pretty much the same hazard. Without wasting millions, we can confidently predict that hot flygen kiteplanes will be long troubled by this critical failure-mode-
     


    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2548 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: Ben's Key and Kite

    Ben's Key and Kite
    http://articles.techrepublic.com.com/5100-10878_11-5730108.html 

    Link was placed in our forum's Link sections also. 

    This sector of getting electricity from the sky has a long tradition.  
    We keep the matter in an AWECS classification.

    General link:  http://tinyurl.com/AtmosphericElectricityLIFT 

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2549 From: Doug Date: 11/14/2010
    Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
    Ugo:
    I do it because it is fun.
    I do it because someone has to look at the other side, or we are lemmings.
    :)
    Doug S.

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2550 From: Doug Date: 11/15/2010
    Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
    Dear Professor Ugo Bardi:

    1) It is well known that most scientific breakthroughs come from OUTSIDE the field: Einstein was not a physicist, the Wright Bros. had no credentials, etc.

    2) The last people to see that the stock bubble would burst were stock brokers, the last people to see that the housing bubble would collapse were real estate agents, along with the top banking experts in housing valuations as applied to mortgages. And so it is that the last people to still believe that the global warming bubble will last forever are the top "climate experts". Coincidentally in all cases, the "experts" derive unusually high incomes based on the bubble til the very end, leading them to perpetuate it beyond the point where reasonable men would long ago have abandoned the theory. You are right, I am not a climate expert. That is the point. :)

    3) A climate expert is someone who is paid to believe in global warming. An expert who does not believe is no longer called an "expert" but is instead called "unemployed".

    4) I merely pointed out that the "experts were wrong" about their own self-announced acid-test of their own self-defined expertise. I merely noted that everything they predicted came out the exact opposite of their predictions.

    5) Please view this chart of temps over the past few million years:

    http://www.seed.slb.com/uploadedImages/Science/Earth_Science/Global_Climate_Change_and_Energy/Related_Articles/global_temp2.jpg

    Please look at this chart as you would look at any other chart of scientific data, note the periodic pattern, and tell me this chart does not clearly show that we are about to enter the next ice age, already overdue?
    :)
    Thanks
    Doug Selsam

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2551 From: Dave Lang Date: 11/15/2010
    Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
    Doug,

    The cyclic history of CO2 atmospheric content follows your temp curve quite nicely, UNTIL the last 200 years, when the CO2 content has gone from an average of about 240 ppm (with about  +/- 40 ppm fluctuations) to its current peak of 375 ppm  and HEADED STRAIGHT UP (50 ppm increase occurring in the last 50 yrs).

    SO, yes, if man hadn't discovered all the things he can do with FIRE, we would likely be poised for the next ice age.....but to so state unequivocally, would be to ignore the role that CO2 seems to play in the atmosphere - I guess you could argue that point from now on, but the periodic +/- 40 ppm CO2 level variations sure correlate nicely with the historic temperature periods on your plot :-))!

    DaveL



    At 12:03 AM +0000 11/16/10, Doug wrote:
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2552 From: dave santos Date: 11/15/2010
    Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
    Doug,
     
    Einstein was a physicist's physicist. He graduated from the best physics shcool of his time & communicated with all the best other physicists.
     
    The Wright Bros similarly were the best of the best aeroengineeers & most experienced pilots of their time.
     
    One can trust experts if they are truly experts.
     
    daveS


    From: Doug <doug@selsam.com
     
    Dear Professor Ugo Bardi:

    1) It is well known that most scientific breakthroughs come from OUTSIDE the field: Einstein was not a physicist, the Wright Bros. had no credentials, etc.

    2) The last people to see that the stock bubble would burst were stock brokers, the last people to see that the housing bubble would collapse were real estate agents, along with the top banking experts in housing valuations as applied to mortgages. And so it is that the last people to still believe that the global warming bubble will last forever are the top "climate experts". Coincidentally in all cases, the "experts" derive unusually high incomes based on the bubble til the very end, leading them to perpetuate it beyond the point where reasonable men would long ago have abandoned the theory. You are right, I am not a climate expert. That is the point. :)

    3) A climate expert is someone who is paid to believe in global warming. An expert who does not believe is no longer called an "expert" but is instead called "unemployed".

    4) I merely pointed out that the "experts were wrong" about their own self-announced acid-test of their own self-defined expertise. I merely noted that everything they predicted came out the exact opposite of their predictions.

    5) Please view this chart of temps over the past few million years:

    http://www.seed.slb.com/uploadedImages/Science/Earth_Science/Global_Climate_Change_and_Energy/Related_Articles/global_temp2.jpg

    Please look at this chart as you would look at any other chart of scientific data, note the periodic pattern, and tell me this chart does not clearly show that we are about to enter the next ice age, already overdue?
    :)
    Thanks
    Doug Selsam


    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2553 From: Theo Schmidt Date: 11/16/2010
    Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
    Doug wrote:

    Thanks Doug for playing the devil's advocate, allowing me to look up all sorts
    of interesting data. Quoting from Wikipedia:

    "In ... 1905, Einstein completed his thesis, with Alfred Kleiner, Professor of
    Experimental Physics, serving as pro-forma advisor. Einstein was awarded a PhD
    by the University of Zurich. His dissertation was entitled "A New Determination
    of Molecular Dimensions". That same year, which has been called Einstein's annus
    mirabilis or "miracle year", he published four groundbreaking papers, on the
    photoelectric effect, Brownian motion, special relativity, and the equivalence
    of matter and energy, which were to bring him to the notice of the academic world.
    By 1908, he was recognized as a leading scientist, and he was appointed lecturer
    at the University of Berne."

    The department of theoretical physics of the University of Bern, in the same
    buildung where climate physicist Thomas Stocker and also I work, still honours
    Einstein with his name, see http://www.itp.unibe.ch/index.html?lang=0&id=1

    "The following year, he quit the patent office and the lectureship to take the
    position of physics docent at the University of Zurich. He became a full
    professor at Karl-Ferdinand University in Prague in 1911. In 1914, he returned
    to Germany after being appointed director of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for
    Physics (1914–1932) and a professor at the Humboldt University of Berlin,
    although with a special clause in his contract that freed him from most teaching
    obligations. He became a member of the Prussian Academy of Sciences. In 1916,
    Einstein was appointed president of the German Physical Society (1916–1918).
    In 1911, he had calculated that, based on his new theory of general relativity,
    light from another star would be bent by the Sun's gravity. That prediction was
    claimed confirmed by observations made by a British expedition led by Sir Arthur
    Eddington during the solar eclipse of May 29, 1919. International media reports
    of this made Einstein world famous. ...
    In 1921, Einstein was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics. Because relativity was
    still considered somewhat controversial, it was officially bestowed for his
    explanation of the photoelectric effect. He also received the Copley Medal from
    the Royal Society in 1925."

    Therefore while it is true that Einstein was at his most brilliant before he
    became a full professor, he by no means came from the outside.


    The Wright brothers also had very good credentials. They were machinists and
    bicycle mechanics, thus knew all about lightweight construction and dynamic
    control, both essential for constructing airplanes. They might be ideal AWE
    researchers!

    ...
    Your point that people are often biased in favour of the fields where they work,
    or their employers, is well taken. However your last statement is false. There
    is much more money in climate change denial than climate change research. The
    Koch brothers and oil companies would bestow great riches on established
    scientists who discredit climate change:

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer

    Howver scienece doesn't work that way. In the long run, it's about facts, not
    beliefs. Of course there are points view, controversy and mistakes. But the
    system leads to consisent knowledge. Einstein himself didn't believe in quantum
    physics "God doesn't play dice." Today quantum physics is a fact and does not
    discredit earlier physical knowledge.
    Therefore only a small minority of scientists are into climate change denial, no
    matter how much money they get.


    Few million? It only shows half a million. The article this chart is from puts
    it into perspective, see http://www.seed.slb.com/subcontent.aspx?id=2316 and
    http://www.seed.slb.com/subcontent.aspx?id=4090

    The temperature curve itself is an old long since resolved controversy, see
    http://www.jstor.org/pss/30085008 and http://www.jstor.org/pss/30085009

    See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy for a detailed
    overview.

    The point is: cyclic climate swings are normal, but the rate of change is
    abnormally fast. And in spite of this, nature won't mind, mankind will survive
    and even civilisation will survive. But the quality of lfe for the majority of
    people will surely decline if we can't decrease the rate of climate change.

    Theo Schmidt
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2554 From: Ugo Bardi Date: 11/16/2010
    Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
    Please, Doug, this mailing list is about AWE. You are free to have your opinions, but I do suggest that you don't try to impose them in a list that shouldn't become just another arena for discussions about conspiracy theories. Thanks

    Ugo
     



    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2555 From: Doug Date: 11/16/2010
    Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
    Hi Dave:
    Well yes, the reality would appear to be that we should HOPE we ARE keeping the planet warm by our CO2 emissions, to prevent what would be a catastrophic decline in temps, and a return to 1 mile of ice over NY, sea levels 400 feet lower etc.
    So I guess we should HOPE that CO2 is as big of a factor as they are telling us and that there is no feedback mechanism such as clouds that neutralize the CO2 effect.
    I stand by the chart of temps over the last 500,000 years, that it is clear that the next big temp swing is down, way way down, and anything we can do to delay that decline is probably indispensable.
    of course, nobody is paying me to have a particular opinion, so what is my opinion worth? Apparently nothing. Maybe I should change my opinion so I can get paid for it!
    :)
    Doug S.


    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2556 From: Doug Date: 11/16/2010
    Subject: Re: GreenHouse Gas Science Origins & AWE Progress
    Hi Ugo:
    Yes of course the label "conspiracy theory" must be applied, as the losing side of an argument typically resorts to name-calling, when they run out of facts. You attempt to reduce your logic to the application of a label that tries to denigrate the other side - try sticking to the facts and comment on the graph itself.

    This is not about global warming at all, it is about authority and whether or not we choose to believe the authority figures. Since all scientific theories are eventually replaced, we can just bet against whatever theory is promoted, and be fairly sure that we will be vindicated in the end.

    I don't need to remind you of the "global cooling" of the 1970's and 1980's. I made a prediction THEN, - my prediction was that in a few years they would shift back to "global warming" for a typical period of style and fashion - say 20 or 30 years, then shift back to global cooling. This 30-year cycle of warming/cooling opinions by "experts" goes back at least 200 years. Nothing new under the sun.

    Other than that, I agree, no place for this debate in this forum. I just noticed that sometimes nobody on this forum has that much to say or talk about, with no progress taking place and no working systems implemented, so I figured people here, having nothing to do but sit and look at their computer screens all day, might be easily distracted into a debate. Looks like I had a few "takers".
    Have a nice day!
    :)
    Doug Selsam


    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2557 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/16/2010
    Subject: An update note on wiki: Year 2002.
    http://www.drachen.org/pdf/Discourse2.2.pdf

    Dave Lang noted in his article that the year "2002"
    was when Drachen Foundation awarded him a grant for exploring "useful" power from kites. In that circle there was not an awareness of Doug Selsam's early work on a ladder-mill scheme, just Ockels' apparently.

    If you find other key steps belonging to the Timeline in the wiki, place it or let me know to place it. Thanks.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_altitude_wind_power#Timeline_for_HAWP

    JoeF
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2558 From: dave santos Date: 11/16/2010
    Subject: Spanning Atmospheric Waves with Tethered-Foils
    This post continues examination of long horizontal trains of dual-mode (towed/towing) AWE kiteplane gliders. Cross-country transport was one application identified. Virtues & methods of vertical lines were recently explored & in a similar spirit one sees unique properties of horizontal tensile structure & motion. Horizontal is the general direction of both wind & human transportation, but is orthogonal to gravity. A tether run axial to apparent wind develops minimal drag of any tether orientation, & run crosswind, maximal drag.
     
    An interesting possibility with horizontal glider trains is maintaining flight across wind "deserts", areas of calm that would otherwise force grounding. The basic idea is to transfer energy from windy to calm zones as needed by kite-elevated long-lines. Dale Kramer tells us that a high performance glider can be towed with just 25 kilos of tug (at about 120kmh). This is a baseline model for long polymer train tethers with high L/D gliders spaced every few kilometers. The toy kite train that reached the stratosphere gives us a rough proportion for tether to kiteplane. Presume the toy kite model to be about 1/20th scale, so full sized gliders flying about 4km will be spaced about 8km apart to carry the tether well off the ground. These are crude estimates & hopefully the ignored dimensions mostly cancel. 
     
    Wind blows in a spectrum of wavelengths by combined mechanisms. Small waves are everywhere & the immediate challenge for early AWE systems is to gracefully persist thru common lulls between wind wave peaks, without constant forced motoring or landing & relaunching. The lightest kites are clearly favored. The biggest wavelengths are planetary waves & the lulls between peaks are typically thousands of kilometers across & commonly take several days to pass overhead or even park for a season as persistent High Pressure zones.
     
    Its looks marginally feasible to span moving planetary calm zones with horizontal long-lines of towed tethered-foils. One hundred gliders spaced at 8km would span 800km, with a towing force requirement of 2500 kilos, plus tether drag; which we can guess will approximate or well exceed 50% of total drag before scale-limiting. The largest continental summer Highs are a tough challenge for AWE & are generally better suited for solar-power. Another post will consider migrating "clouds" of tethered foils, as enabled by horizontal trains to follow wandering Jet Streams, while hop-scotching across fixed groundgen fields.
     
    coolIP

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2559 From: dave santos Date: 11/17/2010
    Subject: Proper AWE Debate
    Doug,
     
    It clearly abuses the list mission to bait others with undeserved insults & distractive debate-
     
    The purpose of the Forum is to support rapid AWE development & proper list debate is over how best to do that. We really are busy people, with daily hard-won progress, & deserve better. The ridiculous assertion that Einstein was no physicist is typical of your misinformings, which you consistently neglect to concede, & so you seem unqualified to properly debate anything, & certainly have not fairly won any AGW debate. It was Lynn who raised the popular allegation of a vast greenie AGW conspiracy, not Ugo. Meanwhile Pierre's question about a small wind charge controller, redirected to you, went unanswered.
     
    You have been warned many times about driving talented people from the list with deliberate distractions. You retort that you expect to be censored from the AWE Forum, but not as a delusional narcissist, but a misunderstood genius inventor. The truth is that no single scheme has been more promoted on the AWE forum than the SuperTurbine.
     
    Ugo,
     
    Sorry about Doug's bad behaviour. The list moderators may once again have to manually vett his posts for suitable content,
     
    daveS

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2560 From: Pierre Benhaiem Date: 11/17/2010
    Subject: Control and reliability
    Hi all,
     
    Among features about systems,configurations of flight can be an important element to estimate the reliability of a control system.
     
    For example a reel-out seems to be advantageous for many points:simplicity,output,generator at ground.A flygen has disadvantages of losses,parts on board,and a part of reliability (some risks).
     
    However a flygen has only one configuration of flight (except for lauching and recovering),and a reel-out has two configurations:reel-out and reel-in with two positions of kite.
    So the management of automatic control seems to be easier for  a flygen,if we take into account another part of reliability.
     
    Morever a rigid wing seems more precise:it is a good thing for a reliable control system.
     
    So it is possible Makani specially takes into account the possibility of a reliable and simple automatic control by a limit of parameters.  
     
    Do you think the difficulty of a reliable control system is yes or no dependant to the AWECS (flygen,reel-out,Laddermill (Doug's or Ockel's),carousel,oscillating,etc.) ?
     
    PierreB   
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2561 From: Uwe Fechner Date: 11/17/2010
    Subject: Re: Control and reliability
    Hello,

    the development of a reliable control system is a challenge.

    We are trying to develop such a system for pumping kites right now.

    I think, that it is possible, probably even with quite small MCU's.
    If you use kites, the advantage is, that a crash is not a big problem.
    If you cut the line in case of a failure of the control system, the kite
    is coming down at a very low speed, so there will be none or only
    very little damage.

    A rigid wing system might be easier to control, but the damage in
    case of a crash is much higher.

    We successfully integrated our control subsystem for flying a figure
    of eight with our multi-body kite model. Look at:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZhujZBWIrI

    A paper, explaining the mathematical background can be found here:

    http://arxiv4.library.cornell.edu/pdf/1011.0851

    Best regards:

    Uwe Fechner
    Researcher on kite control at ASSET, TU Delft
    www.kitepower.eu

    Am 17.11.2010 23:32, schrieb Pierre Benhaiem:
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2562 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/17/2010
    Subject: Windlift flight testing recent
     
    1. Windlift Flight Testing   August 18, 2010  2:00 PM, Engelhard, NC. Estimated wind speed: 8-12 mph.  Peak power observed during generate stroke: 3 kW.
    2. Windlift flight testing 2    Video from the second flight test of the Windlift Model 8 system. Testing was performed October 6, 2010 at Engelhard, North Carolina.
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2563 From: dave santos Date: 11/17/2010
    Subject: Re: Control and reliability
    Pierre,
     
    Nothing is quite as it first seems with kites.
     
    If desired, minimalist active control might reside at the pilot-kite,
     
    daveS


    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2564 From: spacecannon@san.rr.com Date: 11/17/2010
    Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate
    Doug, stands up for an opinion that you guys jumped all over me on, your a bunch of hipocrits.

    ---- dave santos <santos137@yahoo.com
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2565 From: Ugo Bardi Date: 11/17/2010
    Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate
    It is all right, Dave. This kind of bad behavior is endemic in most lists. I have seen it destroying good groups built over years of work. Just a few bad apples are all that it takes.

    My first experience - years ago - was with an Italian discussion list about petroleum supply. It had a perfect "Hubbert" behavior. It went up with growing interest and attracting competent people. Then, trolls started appearing, insulting everyone, cutting and pasting their "infinite oil" theory, arguing on every small detail, and so on. Eventually people got tired of all that and started disappearing. The list peaked and then the number of people and of messages went down. It still exists, but it is effectively "dead".

    At that time I had little experience with this kind of forums. I thought it was not my job of moderator that of "censoring" messages. But now I see that moderation in forums is not censoring. It is a service done to the member. It is akin to the immune system in the human body. If you shut down your immune system -as it happens with AIDS - you die of opportunistic infections. The same for lists. If they are not moderated, they die of opportunistic infections.

    So, back to work........

    Ugo




    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2566 From: Pierre BENHAIEM Date: 11/18/2010
    Subject: Re: Control and reliability

    DaveS,

    I had tried several places for the generator and its rotor on the parafoil of Manual Flygen. By far the stability is better when it is placed between the two lines:I see no difference by piloting with or without generator. For an identical reason of centre of gravity a pilot of paragliding is well placed below the paragliding, but things are different with a rigid wing.


    Both videos, which I had already viewed, are very interesting.One can see for another way what I told on the precedent message:un orthogonal transmission between tether and "lever" is maximized but passive control is possible only with a non orthogonal transmission

    allowing only one configuration of flight seen on the video.

    Can you realize such eight pathes with a parafoil under pilot-kite,but with more amplitude? 


    PierreB

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2567 From: Pierre BENHAIEM Date: 11/18/2010
    Subject: Re: Control and reliability
    Pr.Uwe Fechner,

    I am going to begin studying of http://arxiv4.library.cornell.edu/pdf/1011.0851 .

    Is the control management of the two phases needed for a reel-out (pumping) a supplementary problem because of very different configurations of kite (1.lift 2.no lift,low drag)?

    The damages are lesser for a soft kite but the danger or perception of it exists.A big soft kite landing on a train... So failures will probably not been accepted,for rigid wings or parafoils.

    Another problem is the cyclic irregularity of kite power during an eight or loop (from simple to double according Makani's datas).Could also the method of kite deformation solves it with an enough good average of power?

    Best regards,

    PierreB 



    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2568 From: Doug Date: 11/18/2010
    Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate
    Sorry guys,
    I was trying to take the discussion to a higher level.
    Small-minded people respond every 30 years to the latest temperature oscillation swing. Those with a broader minds ask: "Is this part of a repeating pattern that has happened before? Could that be a clue to this time? How does human behavior fit in?"

    As we all know, temps have been higher within recorded history, negating the runaway warming theory. The arctic sea ice melting has happened before, and is part of a repeating cycle. Also the multidecadal oscillations discount the runaway effect and instead reveal a reverse feedback: open ocean dumps heat into space, whereas ice-covered ocean retains its heat with ice being an insulator.
    If you want to look at past eras that were warmer, take into account that if the runaway scenario were accurate, we would not have ice at the poles now, and get a clue.
    It takes almost no special talent to merely parrot "the (most recent) party line".

    On the other hand, those trained as scientists will remember you were taught that your job is to be a constant skeptic and constantly hold any new theory's feet to the fire.
    You were warned that you would be castigated as a truth-teller, that your opinion would probably go unrecognized till after you were dead, and that is the way it is.
    As far as a forum, I can go over to a real wind turbine forum and we can talk all day about working systems. People buy them, people build them. The discussions are about things like lightning, storms, components wearing out, and economics of systems. And we get a few clueless newbies, usually asking about vertical axis or trying to mismatch a wrong generator choice.

    None of the discussions here would be allowed because they only allow discussions of working systems. Most of the people who really know their stuff hardly post because they are so busy with real working systems. Most of the people here, and you know who you are, spend most of their time dreaming about half-thought-through systems that not only do not exist, never will. Or vast and arcane sets of rules for these nonexistent systems. I'm sorry if I'm intruding on someone's fantasy world or bursting a bubble where someone wants to think that their fantasies are being eagerly digested as realities.
    I didn't bring up the topic of global warming, just gave my opinion.

    If you check back you will find that the scientific debate over global warming/cooling has a predictable 30-year cycle going back to the 1700's. Get back to me in another 20 years and tell me all about it - no you won't dare because by then it will be all about global cooling Most warming adherents did not think it up themselves, but merely would not dare have an opinion that went against whatever theory is promoted by current programming. Note however that even the adherents are afraid to say the word "warming" anymore. That should give us a clue. How about "heating"? Why does not "warming" get replaced by "heating"? Why "change"? Could it be they are mo longer convinced? Could it be that they are hedging their bets? trying to wiggle out of what they said? By changing the vocabulary? Would people do that?
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2569 From: Doug Date: 11/18/2010
    Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate
    I just heard on CNBC that peak oil production is now predicted to be in year 2030. I could have sworn "they" originally said it was year 2000. When I go to the beach, the water is the same level it's been my whole life. The Brazilian rain forest has been "about to disappear" since I was a wee lad. I think it was supposed to have vanished by the 1980's by which time we were all supposed to have been driving hybrids. Back then a "hybrid" had no direct connection from the engine to the wheels. How did the "future" become so backward?
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2570 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/18/2010
    Subject: Video collection now up to 144

    The video collection now has a second column for "Lifters"

    Thanks to all who have sent in links to their AWE-related videos!

    Most recent notice this morning regards a lifter from Hawaii, which see.

    http://www.energykitesystems.net/AWECommunityIntroVideos.html

    And thanks to those who have used the PayPal page and button to subscribe.
    Note: Subscribers and non-subscribers alike have full access to our AWE community files.

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2571 From: dave santos Date: 11/18/2010
    Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate
    Doug,
     
    Its simply untrue that conventional turbine forums only properly discuss working systems, there is much serious discussion of proposed systems. Except for your constant objections, this forum is especially friendly to speculative ideas, as is traditional in real science. Imagine a fusion forum without discussion of proposed technology. Your own schemes are highly speculative, especially regarding their scaling potential, so your complaints self-apply. Surely you deserved Lynn's "hypocrit" award long before we did.
     
    What you clearly miss about climate dynamics is the same physics of dynamical systems that are the Achilles Heel of SuperTurbine drive-shafts. We do not know all the control laws for climate change. Maybe we have already turned the switch off for the next Ice Age, so you are wrong to "predict" its imminence. Maybe there is a rebound effect & a post-phoned Ice Age happens more violently. These are chaotic sequences that science insists even Jimmy-the-Greek can't lay odds on, nor can you.
     
    All your baited opponents are saying is that your opinions very poorly communicate the high standard of scientific thinking claimed. Ugo is right about how trolls tear down lists. This list has a very urgent mission that you do not share. Maybe kite energy can prevent war over oil. Maybe we should not firesale our environment & lose species to pay for oil addiction. Maybe kites will spread soot on rampaging ice sheets to slow the Ice Age you guessed was imminent. In any case we will have developed this wonderful new aviation tool, despite your ingrained backyard-turbine pessimism.
     
    So let us explore every idea that might have an impact. Tolerate our right to dream as we tolerate yours. Report progress, not bile,
     
    daveS


    From: Doug <doug@selsam.com
     
    I just heard on CNBC that peak oil production is now predicted to be in year 2030. I could have sworn "they" originally said it was year 2000. When I go to the beach, the water is the same level it's been my whole life. The Brazilian rain forest has been "about to disappear" since I was a wee lad. I think it was supposed to have vanished by the 1980's by which time we were all supposed to have been driving hybrids. Back then a "hybrid" had no direct connection from the engine to the wheels. How did the "future" become so backward?



    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2572 From: Doug Date: 11/18/2010
    Subject: Contests & Grants:Thanks for the support
    Hi to all from this list and other lists, who have take a few moments to cast a vote for my "Shocking Sky Serpent" entry into the GE Ecomagination Challenge.

    Recent results of contests and grant proposals:

    1) NREL: No thanks, that's a job for (the new) ARPA-E;

    2) ARPA-E: No Thanks, we were overwhelmed with responses and it has been "a learning experience" for us;

    3) GE Ecomagination: Made it to the "GE 100" but was ignored after that "It has beeen a learning experience" - hey where have I heard that one before? Let's make sure they really award $200,000,000;

    4) Masdar Challenge: "We had an overwhelming number of great submissions" translation: you are just another member of the herd - ignored.

    5) Owens Corning App Challenge: I was a semi-finalist when they last contacted me (I had not remembered even entering), they had asked for more material. Best case scenario for any entity that purports to "help" usher in progress: to give the already overworked innovator one more assignment, almost always for no result. Sorry Owens Corning, I've reached my saturation point with regard to more assignments. Either you like what I have or you don't.
    :)

    PS here's a question to pursue: how many new wind turbine configurations have been explored, by all the big official labs combined, in the last 30 years? (Could it be zero?) How much money have they taken in to explore new wind energy technologies in that time?

    Why do I often sound cynical and unbelieving? Well I guess it comes with age and hearing years and years of talk with little in the way of progress. I have not seen any new turbine designs, only resurrections of old designs already proven not useful. Only actual progress is progress, not just talking about progress, I guess that's the point I'm trying to make: to get people who may make a difference focused on progress rather than empty talk.

    Doug Selsam
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2573 From: dave santos Date: 11/18/2010
    Subject: Re: Control and reliability
    Pierre,
     
    You made a good advance in the art by finding a practical way to mount a flygen well under the multiline kite with a spreader stick. It is much more stable than early experiments by Peter Lynn.
     
    Yes, a passive system can be tuned for a wider sweep pattern (see link). I am using tighter patterns in the quest to eventually pack large numbers of sweeping wings in a limited airspace & beat the array scaling limits of loose pattern systems. Please review the recent post on optimal sweep patterns for many hard-won lessons.
     
    dave
     

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2574 From: AirborneWindEnergy-owner@yahoogroups.com Date: 11/18/2010
    Subject: Re: Welcome Jeremy Calvert with Kitebot.org

    Update notice in November 2010:

     

    http://www.kitebot.org/project-updates/stillhere

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2575 From: Theo Schmidt Date: 11/19/2010
    Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate
    Doug schrieb:
    Playing the devil's advocate, which you claim, is a higher level. It would
    refine the discussion, bring out new facts. Trolling, which is what your posts
    seem to be, is a lower level. It would waste everybody's time. I havn't quite
    decided where to place your posts yet! Maybe both.


    A typical trollish statement, as 30 years ago climate change importance was not
    in the public mind and the scientific community hadn't yet agreed if we are
    going to get worldwide warming or cooling. Of course there are cyclic patterns
    and there will be ice ages in the future. But we are concerned with the
    immediate future of the nexts decades and centuries whereas most of these cycles
    are far slower.


    Not so, there are many runaway effects during different stages of the cyclic
    variations which all interact. But there are scary ones which could easily push
    the rate of warming even higher than it is at present if they "take control".

    ...
    True.


    Untrue. And what are you trying to say?

    ...
    And what is wrong with that? So did Archimedes, Galileo and many others. And
    anyway the dreamers at least don't harm anybody, whereas the doers sometimes get
    it wrong, as with atomic bombs and atomic power plants. (This includes Einstein,
    by the way. In later years he bitterly regretted laying the groundwork for the
    bombs dropped on Japan.)


    And what is wrong with that? It's called philosophy.

    ...
    The 30-year solar variation cycle is very much weaker than what we are talking
    about. If this isn't what you mean, please explain.

    ...
    What on earth are you talking about? This is also smells of trolling, the
    constant introduction of red herrings and not responding to previous arguments.


    Obviously this is not a precise figure. Our peak-oil experts in Switzerland
    reckon this to be maybe 2010, but maybe 2020 or maybe it has already occurred.
    It depends on the economy. A randomly chosen site http://gasprices-usa.com shows
    peaks at all these dates. Unfortunately peak-coal is a long way away and it is
    possible to fabricate synthetic liquid fuels from coal, so the problem won't go
    away.

    So what? It is just a blip on a very long time scale. See the second figure in
    http://limitstogrowth.net/Essay.html. And if the economy doesn't recover (like
    it does seem), "they" will have been right.


    You would be an extraordinary human being indeed to grasp yearly rises of
    millimeters when the daily and weekly variations are much higher, up to ten
    meters or so in tidal areas. Did you measure it, how and where? According to a
    NASA graph the global change has been 2 cm in the last 50 years.
    http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/121630main_slr_thermal.jpg
    It isn't easy to measure this accurately. Obviously local changes are much
    higher due to other effects. I remember as a boy snorkelling over the walls of
    Roman ruins in Capri which were dry during the reign of emperor Tiberius. And
    beaches respond to sea level changes and come and go for other reasons.


    It is still disappearing rapidly.

    Thankfully there are a few national reserves, so it won't go completely as in
    some other countries. It is however precisely the destruction of rain forest
    which is one of the major effects of climate warming.

    And what has this got to do with the discussion? Another red herring? (In any
    case I drove a "hybrid" from 1985 on and still do. It had three wheels then and
    two wheels now.)

    Cheers, Theo
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2576 From: Theo Schmidt Date: 11/19/2010
    Subject: Corrections [was: Re: [AWECS] Re: Proper AWE Debate]
    Theo Schmidt schrieb:
    I see that I've mixed something up. There are solar cycles of 11, 22,
    about 87, 210, 2300 and 6000 years, probably more. So I hope Doug can
    explain what he means with his 30-year cycle.


    This is the effect only due to the expansion of water and does not
    include other effects such as Greenland ice melting. Another NASA-graph
    http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/121629main_nsusl-high.jpg seems to
    show a total measured by satellites which is 5-7 times faster. Both from
    http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/sealevel_multimedia.html
    Therefore Doug should see a change today if he had carefully marked
    extreme high waters (maximum tides) on a rock as a boy.

    Cheers, Theo
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2577 From: Dan Parker Date: 11/19/2010
    Subject: Re: Corrections [was: Re: [AWECS] Re: Proper AWE Debate]
    Hi Theo,
     
               I am pretty certain that about eleven years you refer to is a half cycle and and about 22 years is a full cycle. This is relevant as solar translates to wind activity on terra firma. I mean no disrespect.
     
                                                                                                                              Dan'l
     
                                                                                                                

    To: AirborneWindEnergy@yahoogroups.com
    From: theosch06@yahoo.de
    Date: Fri, 19 Nov 2010 13:30:12 +0100
    Subject: Corrections [was: Re: [AWECS] Re: Proper AWE Debate]

     
    Theo Schmidt schrieb:
    I see that I've mixed something up. There are solar cycles of 11, 22,
    about 87, 210, 2300 and 6000 years, probably more. So I hope Doug can
    explain what he means with his 30-year cycle.

    This is the effect only due to the expansion of water and does not
    include other effects such as Greenland ice melting. Another NASA-graph
    http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/121629main_nsusl-high.jpg seems to
    show a total measured by satellites which is 5-7 times faster. Both from
    http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/sealevel_multimedia.html
    Therefore Doug should see a change today if he had carefully marked
    extreme high waters (maximum tides) on a rock as a boy.

    Cheers, Theo


    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2578 From: Doug Date: 11/19/2010
    Subject: Re: Proper AWE Debate
    Hi Dave S.:
    Well at least I try and keep it playful most of the time.

    While you say all ideas are considered here, you spend a lot of time declaring in no uncertain terms that my ideas cannot possibly work (your torque-tube issue).

    You've also declared your certainty that the first working systems to emerge will have the main characteristics of the systems you envision.

    In both cases I disagree with you, but agree with your free speech on this forum and welcome the debate.

    In all cases I find that heated debate gets the issues out there.
    This forum does promote thinking and ideas. Let nobody say someone should not give their opinion, nor be surprised when the response is healthy disagreement. For now, let's remember, the poster-child of this field of endeavor cannot be found making power anywhere in the world. Another pesky fact.

    When someone has a daily working system that returns economical power for any purpose, in a reliable manner, then maybe the tone can get more serious.

    Until then I stand behind my assertion that most of the energy going into this field still comes from ground level and is mostly misapplied, and most of the "wind" is merely "hot air".

    When I say "stop blogging and start building" I guess I am talking to myself as much as anyone else.

    I'm sorry but when you have come from a background of 10 years of reading preposterous posts from newbies with innocently idiotic ideas about wind energy (no longer allowed on the "real wind energy" forums), most of what we read here is simply taking these ill-advised schemes into the air - well if they don't work, then they don't work, and talk of taking them into the air is just one more level of silliness, unknown to the promoters.

    So yes, this is a bad habit - blogging. It's 7:00 AM: the markets are open, and I need to get up to my new wind-powered test facility that has zero electric bills because of a working turbine that will likely be already making power when I arrive, and when I leave, and most of the time, without my even having to look at it or perform any actions for perhaps 5 years. That is a (barely economical with government incentives) wind energy system. Luckily for me it came with the house.

    I think I gotta join bloggers anonymous! posters anonymous?
    :)
    -Doug Selsam
    http://www.selsam.com
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2579 From: AirborneWindEnergy-owner@yahoogroups.com Date: 11/19/2010
    Subject: Strong online view of messages

    Thanks for the trial moderation as some tail clipping is done.

    Please notice that online, all the messages may be seen in expanded form on a topic or streamed by date on one page, if wanted.     Also, the short view is available.  One may choose to present to oneself a topic tree or a streaming dated run.           To keep the list with quality topic threads, please "reply" to a topic, only if the content of the message is in that topic, as best you might; else start a carefully composed new message with a new title without using "Reply."   Begin fresh for a fresh topic in order to form a new topic tree; this will make following a topic very pleasant.    Thanks.

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2580 From: Doug Date: 11/19/2010
    Subject: Corrections [was: Re: [AWECS] Re: Proper AWE Debate]
    Google "sea ice" and "insulator" and learn about the negative feedback of arctic sea ice, well-known for many years.
    multi-decadal oscillations, also called decadal oscillations.
    Igloos keep eskimos warm, not cold.
    Ice forms on water and insulates the water below, else the whole pond would freeze. This is 3rd grade science.
    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2581 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/19/2010
    Subject: HighWindHawaii

    August, 2010, statements and flight tests:

    1. HighWindHawaii's Channel
      [[Ed: Without confirmation, I see two turbines on the kite; I do not have any notes concerning what those turbines are doing, if any more than spinning. Notes are welcome.]]

    Who, what, where, when, why, ... ?     So, far, we have not more than the YouTube presence.

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2582 From: Joe Faust Date: 11/19/2010
    Subject: Re: HighWindHawaii

    Permanent home within AWE Community sites:

    http://www.energykitesystems.net/HighWindHawaii/index.html

     

    Group: AirborneWindEnergy Message: 2583 From: Theo Schmidt Date: 11/19/2010
    Subject: Re: Corrections
    Doug schrieb:
    Done that. The feedback is called positive or negative depending from
    which direction you are looking. Ice does insulate and keeps the ocean
    warmer and the air cooler. But this is secondary. What matters is the
    the ice reflects light back into space. When the ice is gone, more light
    is absorbed and both air and water heat up, even more ice melts. This is
    one of the runaway effects: the warmer it gets, the warmer it gets.

    Cheers, Theo